A Foresight Approach to Nuclear Energy: Four Global Scenarios

Volume 10|Issue 10| Jul 2026 |Research Papers

Abstract


This paper applies a scenario-based foresight framework to examine the uncertain future of nuclear energy, arguing that linear eforecasting is ill-suited to a domain shaped by interacting technological, geopolitical, environmental, and societal dynamics. Drawing on foundational and contemporary scholarship on nuclear energy, the paper identifies key uncertainties, including the commercialization of advanced and small reactors, AI-enabled operations, stringent climate policies, energy-security shocks, waste management, and public acceptance, and uses them to construct a set of divergent yet plausible trajectories to 2050. Each scenario explicitly traces the implications for the energy–water nexus in the Arab region and for regional security. The analysis develops four scenarios: incremental innovation and specialized proliferation; a crisis-driven global renaissance; post-disaster decline; and a geopolitically fragmented nuclear future. These demonstrate how policy credibility, safety performance, and international cooperation can expand or constrain nuclear options.
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Arab Center
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