Regional Gas Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council Difficult Past and Possible Futures

This paper reviews the dynamics of regional gas integration among the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council since the launch of the Dolphin Energy project in 1999 and proposes scenarii for gas pipeline exports until 2020. Based on the general assumption that the primary driver of regional gas integration (or the lack thereof, between some countries) is regional geopolitics, this paper proposes three scenario for future gas trade via pipeline based on the known contractual provisions of the Dolphin energy gas delivery agreements and a qualitative approach of geopolitical risk assessment.

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This paper reviews the dynamics of regional gas integration among the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council since the launch of the Dolphin Energy project in 1999 and proposes scenarii for gas pipeline exports until 2020. Based on the general assumption that the primary driver of regional gas integration (or the lack thereof, between some countries) is regional geopolitics, this paper proposes three scenario for future gas trade via pipeline based on the known contractual provisions of the Dolphin energy gas delivery agreements and a qualitative approach of geopolitical risk assessment.

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