Symbolic Nuclear Deterrence: Strategic Scenarios and Regional Balances for the Middle East

Volume 10|Issue 10| Jul 2026 |Research Papers

Abstract

Amid escalating regional tensions, marked by Israel's increasingly hostile policies, intensifying military conflicts in the Middle East, and ongoing efforts toward nuclear armament, the likelihood of a nuclear confrontation is higher than ever. This article therefore examines the future of nuclear deterrence in the region over the next decade (2025–2035). It adopts forward-looking analytical framework, combining case study analysis of Iran and Saudi Arabia, within a with scenario building to outline four plausible futures. It concludes that "symbolic nuclear deterrence" may offer an effective strategy for managing regional threats, thereby mitigating escalation risks and the catastrophic consequences of a "nuclear winter."

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​Researcher in Strategic Studies, Doha, Qatar.

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