Categorizing Scenarios and the Theoretical Problematic of Chaos in Modern Foresighting

​The causes of chaos and of the theoretical confusion which mar the field of using scenarios in future studies cannot be exhaustively enumerated. A complex set of reasons have led to this situation, including foresighters' use of different and unclearly differentiated concepts. The theoretical literature in terms of studies, books, and monographs that deal with the subject of scenarios has proliferated in unprecedented fashion. In parallel, the interventions, approaches, and specializations that use scenarios have also proliferated. This leads us to question the categorization of scenarios and the theoretical problematic of chaos in modern foresighting. This paper studies and analyzes the classical categorization of scenarios, and presents the new orientations for this categorization arising from the efforts of different kinds of foresighters, governmental and non-governmental institutions, think tanks, and corporations.

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​The causes of chaos and of the theoretical confusion which mar the field of using scenarios in future studies cannot be exhaustively enumerated. A complex set of reasons have led to this situation, including foresighters' use of different and unclearly differentiated concepts. The theoretical literature in terms of studies, books, and monographs that deal with the subject of scenarios has proliferated in unprecedented fashion. In parallel, the interventions, approaches, and specializations that use scenarios have also proliferated. This leads us to question the categorization of scenarios and the theoretical problematic of chaos in modern foresighting. This paper studies and analyzes the classical categorization of scenarios, and presents the new orientations for this categorization arising from the efforts of different kinds of foresighters, governmental and non-governmental institutions, think tanks, and corporations.

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